The European Connection

It was a matter of time. In a rather obvious consequence of the global economic downturn (particularly acute in Britain), the famous Good Schools list of the best educational institutions in the nation witnessed the rise of state entries in the rankings, usually dominated by what the Brits call “independent schools” (private preparatory schools). 

Although several headmasters and analysts interviewed by the FT were surprised, I am surprised at their amazement. The credit crunch that has been afflicting markets for now over a year, with severe consequences for governments’ fiscal balance around the world, not to mention the high-earning financial sector, has hit the demographic that has always been most likely to send their offspring to elite schools.

As Britain’s top (fee-free) state schools receive more and more applications, it will be interesting to see how this trend impact education enrollment rates in the rest of Europe and in the US, not only in terms of private elementary and high schools, but also when it comes to higher education. 

Fewer and fewer, it seems, can avoid the consequences of the economic malaise, which – if nothing else – reinforces the strength of the phenomenon.

In a very interesting interview on FT.com, World Bank president Robert Zoellick warns about the dangers inherent in the current global economic downturn. With rhetoric reminiscent to historians’ talk about the 1930s, Zoellick makes an interesting point about Eastern Europe and its relationship with the EU.

Considering the relatively recent openness of these economies and the lack of “strong foundations” in their market and democratic institutions (merely as a function of time, if nothing else), it is important for developed economies to help reduce the volatility associated with Eastern European economies. Given the importance of European FDI and its political stake in the region, Zoellick convincingly argues that it falls on to the EU to act. Unlike where the French and British may be heading, the solution is to help these economies not veer away from the path of market integration, open regulation, and perhaps most importantly, democratic institutions.

Even in the era of the European Union, the Weimar Republic nightmare is never too distant in Central Europe.

Although the NYT has a story today claiming that “Death ends coma case debate that set off furor in Italy,” the debate around Eluana Englaro’s case and euthanasia in general in Italy is just getting started. 

Ms. Englaro had been in a coma for over fifteen years after an accident in 1992, but in recent weeks, her father had successfully moved her to a private clinic in Udine that agreed to remove her feeding tube. As soon as the issue hit the media, the Vatican reacted violently claiming that such action would be euthanasia, a practice illegal in Italy. The right-wing administration of Premier Silvio Berlusconi then first attempted to pass a decree preventing the removal of the feeding tube (until President Napolitano announced he would not sign it into law) and then drafted a four-line Senate bill that was being debated when Eluana suddenly died. 

Although most Italian dailies are as of now focusing on whether or not there will be an autopsy to determine how she suddenly died (some Senators cried: “Murderers!” when the news was first reported during the debate session), the issue will quickly merge into a debate about euthanasia itself, where Italy has very different laws than other countries in Europe. If nothing more, it will be another opportunity for clash between Berlusconi’s conservative government, allied to the Vatican, and the leftist coalition in opposition. 

In this case, convergence with the Northern European norm may never happen with a country with strong Catholic roots like Italy.

This morning US Vice-president Biden gave a speech in Munich that sent a very clear message to Moscow: Rapprochement is not near, not by a long shot. At the foreign policy conference where then-President and now Prime Minister Vladimir Putin first denounced US interventionism two years ago, Biden was explicit about limiting Russia’s influence in the Caucasus: “…the United States will not recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. We will not recognize a sphere of influence.”

The European reaction was between openly positive and cautiously expectant. Whereas German Chancellor Angela Merkel tried to focus on the need to improve dialogue with Russia (which Biden also stressed), French President Sarkozy said it was obvious the relationship with the Kremlin was not great. Specifically, he referred to a “distrust” between the EU and Russia. At this point, rather vox populi. 

The real issue here is how much of an alignment this (new) American stance will bring with Europe, and how hostile the revitalized alliance will be toward Putin (and Medvedev).

 
For several months, it has been clear that the partnership between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel is an engine for European integration. They have agreed to disagree in some issues, such as France’s mare nostrum idea of a Mediterranean Union, yet in most issues they are together. Examples of that are global warming and how to deal, by and large, with the global economic downturn.

Today, they took it to the next level, publishing a long op-ed in Le Monde, published simultaneously in the German press. As the Gaullist Sarkozy prepares to rejoin the NATO high command, which President De Gaulle abandoned in one of his many acts of self-assertion forty years ago, the op-ed promised increased security cooperation. Quite revealing was the op-ed title: “Security – Our Common Mission.”

Security cooperation is a much-talked about principle since the creation of the Common Security and Defense policy doctrine in the Maastricht Treaty of 1992, but little has been achieved in practical terms, despite the hard work of people like Javier Solana. The new proposition centers around a European defense strategy that actually cooperates with the US, while maintaining a usable and well-stocked military force built upon cooperation.

Without real European federalism, it may be difficult to have French and German soldiers fighting along one another, but the programs proposed by Sarkozy and Merkel – including the stationing of German soldiers in a base in France for the first time since the end of occupation in 1945 – is most definitely a promising first step. With a potentially nuclear Iran and a belligerent Russia in the cards, the world needs a strong Europe, both diplomatically and militarily. The plan foresees that kind of cooperation, as well as a stronger NATO and better ties with President Obama. 

And just like the European Steel and Coal Community sixty years ago, Franco-German cooperation is a useable blueprint for the rest of Europe. Hopefully, one day we may have a European defense policy, a (real) European foreign minister, and a (true) European High Military Command. So that the next time Henry Kissinger feels like calling Europe, he can actually get through.

Attraction May Go Beyond Diplomacy

Welcome back for a second semester at TEC!

In the last months, and despite Obama’s hopeful inauguration parties last week, the news in Europe and around the world are anything but hopeful. Just yesterday, UK economic performance data marked the end of a particularly dismal week in financial markets. The message seems clear enough: there will be no swift recovery in Europe and in the UK devaluation is painfully correcting past excesses – it’s like the bitter British 70s are back. There are some, however, who do not complain. And perhaps that is precisely what Britain needs right now to revive its struggling economy.

And yet, the return to growth seems farther and farther away with each day the stock markets are open. But is the increased monetary flexibility in Britain, when compared to the ECB’s corset on the eurozone, a good or a bad thing? The present crisis will become a case study, one way or another.

Although it has not been properly covered by US media outlets, the situation in Greece has been quite chaotic in the last few days. Since the death of a teenager on Sunday, riots have spread from city to city, from suburb to suburb, leading many analysts to draw comparisons with les banlieues some years ago.

According to a Greek Socialist leader, these troubles symbolize people’s lack of trust in their government. It is hard to understand what the riots actually mean. Is it like France some years ago or more like Paris in 1968? Or is it a reaction against a police force that has been associated with authoritarianism in the past? Or something else?

The answer may yet elude us… but it is hard not to be surprised to see such a developed country like Greece descend into anarchy and see its politicians rendered almost useless facing the crisis. Modernity is fragile indeed.

On the Crimson today, I wrote a column on the Somali pirates terrorizing trade and tourism in the Gulf of Aden, in east Africa. For the European Union, this has become a very important issue, and not because of the crimes themselves. In order to quell the attacks, seven EU nations have decided to form a multinational naval force. This may be the first step toward making the EU a military power in itself. 

Such developments usually come from crises, just like when the United States decided to form an army during the Revolutionary Wars. When it comes to Europe, the focus on terrorism earlier in the decade led to the creation of a EU Rapid Reaction Force. Operation Atalanta, however, will take it to the next level; it will bring together Britain, France, Germany, Spain, and three other European countries under what may just be a European flag. It will be a good development for security in the Aden Gulf, and an even better precedent for future European humanitarian missions, like the one that the developed world must send to stabilize Somalia itself.

The Library of Alexandria has always been one of the most cherished memories of Antiquity: the largest, most comprehensive biblioteke of the world, founded in the third century BC and destroyed in one of the many wars of the classical age (some time between Ceasar’s conquest of Egypt and the Muslim invasion in 642 AD).

But now, Europe is trying to rebuild it in the modern age, without endless corridors or vulnerable volumes. With the slogan of ‘connecting cultural heritage,’ a team based in the Dutch National Library is building Europeana, “website giving users direct access to some 2 million digital objects, including film material, photos, paintings, sounds, maps, manuscripts, books, newspapers and archival papers.” By 2010, they plan to have 6 million digital objects. 

If what happened some days ago when the prototype launched is any indication, there definitely is a market for Europeana. Now the question is what types of information will be included in Europe’s cultural DNA database and how European citizens will react to it. But at least everyone, you included, can contribute…

Back in the day, when the euro was launched, many of Europe’s finest minds said it would not last. There were many op-eds, articles, and even books written about how it would end like the Latin Monetary Union. Quite strikingly, however, this time History does not seem to be repeating itself. Au contraire.

Just a few weeks ago, when Iceland became the first sovereign victim of the financial crisis, a formerly anti-EU country changed its views on economic integration and even monetary union literally overnight. Granted, it took a crisis with the UK, the nationalization of its three banking giants, and rumors of default. WIth the krona in free-fall and the government between a rock and a hard place, it is not surprising that Iceland has fallen in love with Europe. The case for monetary integration is not merely about exchange of goods and services, but, perhaps more importantly these days, about stability in times of financial turmoil.

According to FT columnist Wolfgang Munchau, the same may happen to none other than the UK, the euro’s worst enemy. His great column is linked here. I think he is right: It is in Britain’s best macroeconomic interest to consider joining the monetary union, strengthening the European Central Bank institution, keeping London as the world’s financial center, and moving forward on European integration. 

But how realistic is it? As Muchau admits, it would take a change in the Labour government’s policy, a vote in the Commons, and even a positive referendum vote, all of which seem utterly utopian. And yet, as the economic crisis deepens around the globe, perhaps it is not a bad idea to dream…